Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway.

Vaccination was a key intervention in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In early 2021, Norway faced significant regional variations in COVID-19 incidence and prevalence, with large differences in population density, necessitating efficient vaccine allocation to reduce infections and severe outcomes. This study explored alternative vaccination strategies to minimize health outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths) by varying regions prioritized, extra doses prioritized, and implementation start time. Using two models (individual-based and meta-population), we simulated COVID-19 transmission during the primary vaccination period in Norway, covering the first 7 months of 2021. We investigated alternative strategies to allocate more vaccine doses to regions with a higher force of infection. We also examined the robustness of our results and highlighted potential structural differences between the two models. Our findings suggest that early vaccine prioritization could reduce COVID-19 related health outcomes by 8% to 20% compared to a baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. For minimizing infections, hospitalizations, or ICU admissions, the best strategy was to initially allocate all available vaccine doses to fewer high-risk municipalities, comprising approximately one-fourth of the population. For minimizing deaths, a moderate level of geographic prioritization, with approximately one-third of the population receiving doubled doses, gave the best outcomes by balancing the trade-off between vaccinating younger people in high-risk areas and older people in low-risk areas. The actual strategy implemented in Norway was a two-step moderate level aimed at maintaining the balance and ensuring ethical considerations and public trust. However, it did not offer significant advantages over the baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. Earlier implementation of geographic prioritization could have more effectively addressed the main wave of infections, substantially reducing the national burden of the pandemic.

Age and product dependent vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalisation among adults in Norway: a national cohort study, July-November 2021.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines have been crucial in the pandemic response and understanding changes in vaccines effectiveness is essential to guide vaccine policies. Although the Delta variant is no longer dominant, understanding vaccine effectiveness properties will provide essential knowledge to comprehend the development of the pandemic and estimate potential changes over time. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we estimated the vaccine effectiveness of Comirnaty (Pfizer/BioNTech; BNT162b2), Spikevax (Moderna; mRNA-1273), Vaxzevria (AstraZeneca; ChAdOx nCoV-19; AZD1222), or a combination against SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalisations, intensive care admissions, and death using Cox proportional hazard models, across different vaccine product regimens and age groups, between 15 July and 31 November 2021 (Delta variant period). Vaccine status is included as a time-varying covariate and all models were adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, county of residence, country of birth, and living conditions. Data from the entire adult Norwegian population were collated from the National Preparedness Register for COVID-19 (Beredt C19). RESULTS: The overall adjusted vaccine effectiveness against infection decreased from 81.3% (confidence interval (CI): 80.7 to 81.9) in the first 2 to 9 weeks after receiving a second dose to 8.6% (CI: 4.0 to 13.1) after more than 33 weeks, compared to 98.6% (CI: 97.5 to 99.2) and 66.6% (CI: 57.9 to 73.6) against hospitalisation respectively. After the third dose (booster), the effectiveness was 75.9% (CI: 73.4 to 78.1) against infection and 95.0% (CI: 92.6 to 96.6) against hospitalisation. Spikevax or a combination of mRNA products provided the highest protection, but the vaccine effectiveness decreased with time since vaccination for all vaccine regimens. CONCLUSIONS: Even though the vaccine effectiveness against infection waned over time, all vaccine regimens remained effective against hospitalisation after the second vaccine dose. For all vaccine regimens, a booster facilitated recovery of effectiveness. The results from this support the use of heterologous schedules, increasing flexibility in vaccination policy.

Cost-utility analysis of the universal pneumococcal vaccination programme for older adults in Norway.

The aim of this study was to establish whether the universal pneumococcal vaccination for older adults in Norway is likely to be cost-effective from the perspective of the health care provider. A decision tree model developed by the Public Health Agency of Sweden was adapted to the Norwegian setting. Two cohorts, consisting of 65-year-olds and 75-year-olds grouped into vaccinated and unvaccinated, were followed over a 5-year time horizon. In the base case, the 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) was used while the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was included in scenario analyses only. The costs and health benefits (measured in quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained) were compared in the two cohorts between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. The impact of indirect effects of the vaccine, such as herd immunity and serotype replacement, were not investigated. The relative importance of change in price was assessed by performing one-way sensitivity analyses. Under base-case assumptions, the programme for the 75-year-old cohort is expected to be dominant (cost-effective) from the health care perspective at the current maximal pharmacy retail price and at 75% vaccination coverage. In comparison, for the 65-year-old cohort the cost per QALY gained is approximately NOK 601,784 (EUR 61,281) under the base-case assumptions. A reduction in the cost of the vaccine to one quarter of its current level also brings the cost per QALY gained within the acceptable ranges in a Norwegian context for both the 65- and 75-year-old cohorts. There is no exact cost-effectiveness threshold in Norway. However, introducing a vaccination programme against pneumococcal disease for 65-year-olds in Norway is likely to fall within the acceptable range while for the 75-year-old cohort the universal programme appears to be dominant (cost-effective).

Influenza risk groups in Norway by education and employment status.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the size of the risk group for severe influenza and to describe the social patterning of the influenza risk group in Norway, defined as everyone ⩾65 years of age and individuals of any age with certain chronic conditions (medical risk group). METHODS: Study data came from a nationally representative survey among 10,923 individuals aged 16-79 years. The medical risk group was defined as individuals reporting one or more relevant chronic conditions. The associations between educational attainment, employment status, age and risk of belonging to the medical risk group were studied with logistic regression. RESULTS: Nearly a fifth (19.0%) of respondents reported at least one chronic condition, while 29.4% belonged to the influenza risk group due to either age or chronic conditions. Being older, having a low educational level (comparing compulsory education to higher education, odds ratio (OR)=1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-1.8 among women, and OR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.7 among men) and a weaker connection to working life (comparing disability pension to working full-time, OR=6.8, 95% CI 5.3-8.7 among women, and OR=6.5, 95% CI 4.9-8.5 among men) was associated with a higher risk of belonging to the medical risk group for severe influenza. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that the prevalence of medical risk factors for severe influenza is disproportionally distributed across the socio-economic spectrum in Norway. These results should influence both public funding decisions regarding influenza vaccination and communication strategies towards the public and health professionals.

Safety of Influenza A H1N1pdm09 Vaccines: An Overview of Systematic Reviews.

Background: In 2009, a new influenza A H1N1 virus emerged causing a global pandemic. A range of monovalent influenza A H1N1pdm09 vaccines with or without adjuvants were developed. After the mass vaccination campaigns safety concerns related to H1N1pdm09 vaccines were reported. More than a decade later, reported AEFIs are still under scrutiny. We performed a systematic review aiming to synthesize the evidence on the safety of the H1N1pdm09 vaccines on reported outcomes from existing systematic reviews. Methods: Four electronic databases, PubMed, EMBASE, Epistimonikos and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched for articles on H1N1pdm09 vaccination published from 2009 to January 2021. Systematic reviews assessing short- or long-term adverse events after H1N1pdm09 vaccination were considered for inclusion. Data was extracted from all selected reviews. Outcomes were grouped and results from each included review were presented narratively and in tables. Results: 16 systematic reviews met the inclusion criteria. Reported outcomes were short-term events (3 reviews), fetal/pregnancy outcomes (8 reviews), Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) (4 reviews), narcolepsy (2 reviews) demyelinating diseases (1 review based on one study only) and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) (1 review). Short-term serious adverse events were rare, 3 cases amongst 16725 subjects in 18 randomized controlled trials (0.018%). No deaths were reported. The risks of local events were generally higher for adjuvanted vaccines as compared to unadjuvanted vaccines. Maternal H1N1pdm09 vaccination in any trimester was not associated with an increase in preterm birth, small for gestational age, congenital malformations or fetal death. For GBS, results were conflicting. The main systematic review on narcolepsy found a 5-14-fold increased risk in children, and a 2-7- fold increased risk in adults after vaccination with Pandemrix. The attributable risk of narcolepsy one year after vaccination was 1 case per 18 400 vaccine doses in children/adolescents, and 1 case per 181 000 vaccine doses in adults. Conclusion: Adjuvanted vaccines had more local but not serious adverse events compared to unadjuvanted vaccines. Vaccination with Pandemrix was strongly associated with narcolepsy, particularly in children. No increased risks of pregnancy outcomes were seen after pandemic vaccination. The findings on GBS were inconclusive.

The experience of lived space in persons with dementia: a systematic meta-synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Identifying how persons with dementia experience lived space is important for enabling supportive living environments and creating communities that compensate for the fading capabilities of these persons. Several single studies have explored this topic; however, few studies have attempted to explicitly review and synthesize this research literature. The aim of this systematic meta-synthesis was therefore to interpret and synthesize knowledge regarding persons with dementia's experience of space. METHODS: A systematic, computerized search of AgeLine, CINAHL Complete, Embase, Medline and PsycINFO was conducted using a search strategy that combined MeSH terms and text words for different types of dementia with different descriptions of experience. Studies with 1) a sample of persons with dementia, 2) qualitative interviews as a research method and 3) a description of experiences of lived space were included. The search resulted in 1386 articles, of which 136 were identified as eligible and were read and assessed using the CASP criteria. The analysis was inspired by qualitative content analyses. RESULTS: This interpretative qualitative meta-synthesis included 45 articles encompassing interviews with 672 persons with dementia. The analysis showed that living in one's own home and living in long-term care established different settings and posed diverse challenges for the experience of lived space in persons with dementia. The material revealed four main categories that described the experience of lived space: (1) belonging; (2) meaningfulness; (3) safety and security; and (4) autonomy. It showed how persons with dementia experienced a reduction in their lived space due to the progression of dementia. A comprehensive understanding of the categories led to the latent theme: "Living with dementia is like living in a space where the walls keep closing in". CONCLUSION: This meta-synthesis reveals a process whereby lived space gradually becomes smaller for persons with dementia. This underscores the importance of being aware of the experiences of persons with dementia and the spatial dimensions of their life-world. To sustain person-centred care and support the preservation of continuity and identity, one must acknowledge not only the physical and social environment but also space as an existential experience for persons with dementia.

Antibiotic therapy in neonates and impact on gut microbiota and antibiotic resistance development: a systematic review.

Objectives: To systematically review the impact of antibiotic therapy in the neonatal period on changes in the gut microbiota and/or antibiotic resistance development. Methods: Data sources were PubMed, Embase, Medline and the Cochrane Database, supplemented by manual searches of reference lists. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies were included if they provided data on different categories of antibiotic treatment (yes versus no, long versus short duration and/or broad- versus narrow-spectrum regimens) and subsequent changes in the gut microbiota and/or antibiotic resistance development. We evaluated risk of bias using the Cochrane Handbook, adapted to include observational studies. When appropriate, we used the vote-counting method to perform semi-quantitative meta-analyses. We applied the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach to rate the quality of evidence (QoE). Study protocol registration: PROSPERO CRD42015026743. Results: We included 48 studies, comprising 3 RCTs and 45 observational studies. Prolonged antibiotic treatment was associated with reduced gut microbial diversity in all three studies investigating this outcome (very low QoE). Antibiotic treatment was associated with reduced colonization rates of protective commensal anaerobic bacteria in four of five studies (very low QoE). However, all three categories of antibiotic treatment were associated with an increased risk of antibiotic resistance development, in particular MDR in Gram-negative bacteria, and we graded the QoE for these outcomes as moderate. Conclusions: We are moderately confident that antibiotic treatment leads to antibiotic resistance development in neonates and it may also induce potentially disease-promoting gut microbiota alterations. Our findings emphasize the need to reduce unnecessary antibiotic treatment in neonates.

Antibiotic exposure in neonates and early adverse outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objectives: To systematically review and meta-analyse the relationship between antibiotic exposure in neonates and the following early adverse outcomes: necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), invasive fungal infections (IFIs) and/or death. Methods: Data sources were PubMed, Embase, Medline and the Cochrane Database (to December 2016), supplemented by manual searches of reference lists. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies were included if they provided data on different categories of antibiotic exposures (yes versus no, long versus short duration, and/or broad- versus narrow-spectrum regimens) and the risk of developing NEC, IFI and/or death in the neonatal period. Two reviewers extracted data and evaluated the risk of bias using the Cochrane Handbook, adapted to include observational studies. When appropriate, meta-analyses were conducted using the random-effect model. Results: We identified 9 RCTs and 38 observational studies. The quality of the majority of studies was poor to moderate. There was a significant association between prolonged antibiotic exposure and an increased risk of NEC in five observational studies (5003 participants) and/or risk of death in five observational studies (13 534 participants). Eleven of 15 studies with data on broad- versus narrow-spectrum regimens reported an increased risk of IFI after broad-spectrum antibiotic exposure, in particular with third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems. Meta-analysis was limited by few and old RCTs, insufficient sample sizes and diversity of antibiotic exposure and outcomes reported. Conclusions: Prolonged antibiotic exposure in uninfected preterm infants is associated with an increased risk of NEC and/or death, and broad-spectrum antibiotic exposure is associated with an increased risk of IFI.

HPV catch-up vaccination of young women: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: While prophylactic human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination is considered effective in young girls, it is unclear whether a catch-up vaccination of older girls would be beneficial. We, therefore, aimed to examine the potential health impact of a HPV catch-up vaccination of girls who were too old at the time of vaccine introduction, hence aged 16 and older. METHODS: We systematically searched the literature for randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that examined the effect of HPV vaccines on overall mortality, cancer mortality and incidence, high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 and higher (CIN2+), vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (VaIN) grade 2 and higher lesions (VIN2+ and VaIN2+, respectively) genital warts (condyloma). We considered all lesions and those associated with HPV type(s) included in the vaccines. RCTs reporting on serious adverse events were also eligible. Selected publications were assessed for potential risk of bias, and we ascertained the overall quality of the evidence for each outcome using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE). Meta-analyses were performed, assuming both random and fixed effects, to estimate risk ratios (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI), using intention-to-treat and per-protocol populations. RESULTS: We included 46 publications reporting on 13 RCTs. Most of the RCTs had a maximum follow-up period of four years. We identified no RCT reporting on the effect of HPV catch vaccination on overall and cancer related mortality, and on cervical cancer incidence. We found a borderline protective effect of a HPV catch-up vaccination on all CIN2+, with a pooled RR of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.62-1.02) for a follow-up period of 4 years. A HPV catch-up vaccination was associated with a reduction in VIN2+ and VaIN2+ lesions, and condyloma. No difference in risk of serious adverse events was seen in vaccinated participants versus unvaccinated women (pooled RR of 0.99 (0.91-1.08)). CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review indicates that a HPV catch-up vaccination could be beneficial, however the long-term effect of such a vaccination, and its effect on cervical cancer incidence and mortality is still unclear.